Canadian Housing Markets Buck Recession and Trend Upwards
Filed Under Calgary Forecast, Canadian Economy, Canadian Real Estate · Tagged: canada's resale market, canadian housing trends, canadian recession, CMHC, recession over
With the worst of the recession over, residential real estate markets in major Canadian centres are poised for growth in the final quarter of 2009, according to a report released today by RE/MAX.
The RE/MAX Bricks and Mortar Report found the bounce back that began in early Spring has made this recession one of the shortest on record. Low interest rates, pent-up demand, and improved affordability levels have all played a role in the recovery now well-underway. Percentage increases in unit sales from January to August 2009 were led by Vancouver, (up a substantial 14 per cent to 23,158), Victoria (up 7.4 per cent to 5,266), Edmonton (up 6.2 per cent to 13,691), Regina (up five per cent to 2,597), Ottawa (up 2.4 per cent to 10,830) and Toronto (up 1.8 per cent to 58,421). Housing values are already ahead of record-breaking 2008 levels in seven of the 11 markets surveyed, including Newfoundland-Labrador (18.1 per cent year to $203,584), Regina (6.4 per cent to $244,088), Halifax-Dartmouth (3.5 per cent to $239,633), Winnipeg (3.5 per cent to $207,006), Ottawa (3.3 per cent to $301,684), and Toronto (up 0.3 per cent to $385,978). Nationally, average price hovers at $312,585, up 0.5 per cent over one year ago.
The strength of the residential housing sector cross-country has taken many economists and housing analysts by surprise once again. In terms of its impact on the resale market, by historical standards, this recession was one of the mildest. The resilience of bricks and mortar has been demonstrated time and again. While there may still be some challenges down the road, the worst is definitely behind us in the housing industry.
The recovery of Canada’s resale housing markets speaks to the tremendous value Canadians place on the importance of owning a home. The number of Canadians overall who own a home has increased since 1981 from 62.1 per cent to 68.4 per cent, with some markets posting even higher homeownership rates — Calgary (74.1), St. John’s (71.5), and Regina (70.1). Significant gains have also been made over the same period in markets such as Ottawa, where levels rose from 51.4 per cent to 66.7 per cent, and Toronto, where levels rose from 57.3 to 67.6 per cent.
Public sentiment can perhaps best be illustrated by a recent Angus Reid Omnibus Survey* that asked the question “In which do you feel more comfortable investing your money? The stock market or real estate.” Out of 1,000 respondents from coast-to-coast, 77 per cent chose real estate. The results of the RE/MAX Bricks and Mortar Report are clearly representative of this national dynamic at work.
Markets are heating up across the country as purchasers take advantage of affordable prices and rock bottom interest rates. Those who missed the boat in years past have found that sitting on the sidelines can be a costly move. Prices are on the upswing and inventory levels are tightening, so the push toward homeownership is expected to continue throughout the Fall and possibly into early 2010.
Over the past thirty years, the Canadian residential real estate market has experienced three major downturns – 1981, 1989, and 2008. While there have also been regional fluctuations throughout the years, return on investment over this period has been substantial, with Vancouver, Victoria, Toronto, Regina and Ottawa leading the country in terms of price appreciation.
The overall stability of real estate as an investment has also played a role. Markets like Halifax-Dartmouth, Regina, Ottawa, Winnipeg and London have provided steady returns (especially in recent years), with minimal fluctuation.
* The Angus Reid Omnibus Survey was conducted on September 15, 2009 and yields a margin of error of +3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
Recession Is Now Over… Says The Bank Of Canada
Filed Under Canadian Economy · Tagged: bank of canada, recession over
The recession is over, the Bank of Canada said in its quarterly Monetary Policy Report released Thursday.
After shrinking since the last quarter of 2008, the Canadian economy will grow by an annualized rate of 1.3 per cent in the current quarter, the bank said. “We are on track for the recovery both in Canada and globally,” Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney told reporters.
However, unemployment will continue to rise, he said.
For many Canadians, “it’s not a recovery until they start getting their jobs back. And on that score, we could still be in for a long wait,” Avery Shenfeld, CIBC economist, said in a report published Thursday.
The return to growth after three quarters of decline signals the end of the recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinkage.
Growth will accelerate through late 2009 and by the first half of 2010, the Canadian economy will be booming along with four per cent growth. But that will begin to taper off to less than three per cent by the last half of 2011, the bank said.
Carney said consumer spending and housing are pulling the growth, especially in the U.S. But there is a “speed limit” to that kind of growth, and the economy will hit it after the burst in 2010, he warned.
The bank said in its report that “stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, improved financial conditions, firmer commodity prices, and a rebound in business and consumer confidence are spurring domestic demand growth.”
“However, the higher Canadian dollar, as well as ongoing restructuring in key industrial sectors, is significantly moderating the pace of overall growth.”
The loonie was up 1.14 cents to 92.17 cents US, which may have been a reaction to the bank’s forecast.
The economic outlook is not much changed from its April report, although it says “the growth profile is slightly altered by a faster rebound in domestic demand,” the bank said.
What are your thoughts? Do you believe that the recession is over…
How did it effect you and your family or those you know?
