Did the Calgary Real Estate Market go Up or Down?

Are Values Increasing or Decreasing in Calgary?

I was reading through the Calgary Real Estate Boards stats and reports from September 2010 and noticed something very interesting…

The report said the following:

The average price of a single family home in the city of Calgary in September 2010 was $460,278, showing a 3 per cent increase from August 2010, when the average price was $445,617 all the while, the median price of a single family home in the city of Calgary for September 2010 was $390,000, showing a 1 per cent decrease from August 2010 when the median price was 395,000.

How is it possible that the market can go up and down at the same time… Let’s dig into this and understand why it’s important to go look at the median prices versus the average prices.

In the month of August there were a total of 25 properties that sold over the $1 Million mark.  Considering August was a slow month, this is great… Out of those 25 homes there were only 2 properties that were above the $2 Million price point, $2.3 Mill and $2.6 Mill.

In the month of September 2010 there were a total of 34 properties over the $1 Million mark.  This is a big jump from August.  Along with the increased number of transactions, the price point was also much higher… There were 4 transactions that were in the $2 Million price point along with one that sold for $3.5 Million.

So, when the report said that the prices in Calgary went up and the media reported the same,  Calgarians were lead to believe that the real estate market in Calgary was on the upswing.  When in reality and when you pull back the curtain, you will see that the prices in Calgary actually declined from the month before.  The median of a range of numbers is determined by ordering all numbers from beginning to end and picking the middle one, or in the case of real estate, the sale prices for that month.  On the other hand, the average sale price, where you’d add all the numbers up (or sale prices) and divide by number of sales, gives us the average price.

When you use the median to look at the real estate market values in Calgary, this will take out the super high values and the low values and give us a true indication of what has happened.

So, in saying all this… Did the market go up or down?  What do you think?

Jared & Rebecca

Calgary Real Estate Fall Market Trends Report

Calgary Real Estate Fall Trends

After four months of hesitation and month-over-month declines in activity, homebuyers in Calgary are finally showing signs of renewed confidence. While some concerns still exist about sluggish economic growth in Canada and the U.S., buyers who are moving forward have been enticed by lower prices, greater selection, favourable borrowing conditions, and a healthier out- look for the future. Year-to-date sales of single-family and condominium homes in the Calgary Metro area are down 12.6 per cent, with 12,511 properties changing hands vs. 14,317 in 2009. Affordability has kept the condominium segment slightly more buoyant, with sales down just under 10 per cent year-to-date versus almost 14 per cent in the single-family home category, while the average condominium price posted a modest four per cent gain. Average residential price in the Calgary Metro area, (single family and condominiums combined) however, is up a solid six per cent year-to-date to $411,233 compared with the year-ago figure of $388,302. This has been pulled up by the strength of the upper end, as well as the fact that more homes sold at the lower end of the spectrum one year ago.

Our Thoughts :

The upper end of Calgary’s market or the luxury market, there are currently some great deals…

On the front lines, realtors have been noting softer values with reductions relatively common place. This is reflected by the city’s year-to-date median sale prices. The median price for single family homes in the Calgary Metro area is now $387,000 (down six per cent from $412,500 in 2009), while the median price for condominiums now stands at $258,000 (a four per cent decrease from the year-ago figure of $269,000). Currently, nearly 7,500 listings are available for sale, with supply more than adequate.

First-time buyers are most active, driving sales at the $300,000 to $400,000 price point. Move-up buyers are starting to follow suit, albeit with a measure of caution. That growing influx, combined with any positive economic news, should help to kick start momentum going forward. The upper end remains a bright spot in Calgary’s real estate market, with year- to-date sales over $1 million surging 25 per cent ahead of 2009 levels (242 units vs. 194 units), as buyers take advantage of the current window of opportunity. Investors have also recognized their advantage, snapping up condos and half duplexes throughout the city. Multiple offers are still occurring on quality product that is priced precisely at fair market value and in an excellent location. Conditions are firming up in Calgary and buyers are starting to take notice. The market is expected to remain steady going forward, in line with the healthier September momentum, closing some of the gap between year-over-year sales. Ultimately, sales will remain off 2009 figures, but average price will level out and post a modest gain.

Our Thoughts :

I agree with this report and want to add that many buyers are looking and actually purchasing homes right now in Calgary.  The key is that as a seller you need to ensure that you can control the pricing and how your home shows.  Properties that show well combined with a realistic value will sell…

Provided by REMAX Fall Market Trends Report 2010

"Jared and Rebecca Chamberlain are Calgary REALTORS® who are changing how real estate is done in Calgary by utilizing online marketing and advanced tools to sell your house in Calgary faster and for far more money. They are a top real estate team in Calgary that you should consider for your next move in Calgary.

Jared & Rebecca

May 2010 Calgary Real Estate Market Update – What Happened?

If you have been watching the real estate market in Calgary, you would have noticed that the market has changed very quickly…

What has caused this?

Well, back in March the listing count in Calgary was approx 4,400, now it’s at apx. 8100 an 84% increase in properties listed on the MLS.  This is a huge increase in a short amount of time… why?

As you have probably heard, the media has been talking about the ramifications of interest rates increasing, “if interest rates go up it will be more expensive to own a house, if buyers can’t afford to buy houses, houses won’t sell and as a result prices will drop.”  They have been talking about this ALOT!

Now if you were thinking of selling your home and you were hearing the same story, you probably are thinking to yourself “I better get my property on the market before prices start dropping”… hence the big increase in listings in such a short period.

So what happens from here? Perception becomes reality, the buyers see a high volume of properties coming on the market and now they see no sense of urgency and they’re waiting to see if prices will adjust down as they have heard they might.

Eventually the media will tire of this story and buyers who have to buy to get moved in before September will come back into the market, in the mean time buyers are taking their time and only moving on properties that show the best and are listed very close to the selling price, like 1% of the potential sale price.

What are prices going to do? Any increase has already happened at the tale end of last year, this year at best is balanced although I feel there has been at least 1% to 2.5% shaved off the prices in the last few weeks.

We will have to wait until 2011 to truly see what happens, any increase in price will depend on housing starts and builders inventory and the over all economy mixed with a whole lot of perception.

These are just our thoughts…

Not Everyone’s Home Value is Increasing

I wanted to shed some light on what is happening in the market place. Some of you may have seen this Calgary Herald article today about the number of listings in Calgary are higher by 43.3% than last year. Now granted last year Calgary was in a strong recovery mode with the rest of the world. After what happened in fall of 2008, and the US banking and mortgage system imploding, we were all in recovery mode. So with this stat of the number of listings increased by 43% shouldn’t mean much right?

Let’s look at it this way. Last year over Christmas there was nearly 12 months worth of inventory on the market and in March, Calgary was down to just under 6 months. As of March this year, we are under 4 months. In Calgary, a balanced market is between 2.5 months and 4 months worth of inventory. This is called the absorption rate. Anything above 4 months is a buyers market and anything below 2.5 months is a sellers market. So currently we are in a balanced market in Calgary, however if your looking to buy a home in Calgary, then there is plenty to pick from.

So we have a lower absorption rate than last year in March, however we now have an increase of 43.3% of listings than this time last year. Reason that the absorption rate is still low and hovering around the top of a balanced market and what makes the big difference is that there are sales happening. Compared to March last year there is an increase of 27.3% in the number of completed sales.

So why would I say that not everyone’s home value is increasing?

With the increase in the new listings over the past month or so, this has created some crazy competition for certain price points in Calgary. These price points typically sold very quickly and for good value in the past. However with the flood of properties in these ranges, if your wanting or needing to sell your home in Calgary, you are needing to stand out from the crowded dance floor.

Thus, not everyone’s home value is increasing.

As well, this isn’t just happening in Calgary either…

April 2010 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

Jared Chamberlain video blogs about the market in Calgary over the past month and what the prices in Calgary are doing.  As the value of real estate climbed over the last month and the supply staying low and the interest rates increasing, we are going to see a strong spring market.  If you would like to leave a comment or don’t care for what Jared is talking about, you can email him at jared@tcgroup.ca or go to www.ChamberlainGroup.ca for more videos.

March 2010 Real Estate Market Update

Jared Chamberlain video blogs about the market over the past couple of months. The median price for both single family homes and condos has increased over January 2010. If you have any comments or don’t care for Jared’s thoughts, please email him at jared@tcgroup.ca or visit http://www.ChamberlainGroup.ca

CREB 2010 Forecast

Every year, CREB puts together a breakfast for all members of the real estate industry and talks about the forecast for the coming year. Take a look at what some of the forecasts are for this year in Calgary.

Calgary #1 Place To Invest in Alberta – REIN

I received my top ten cities report the other day, and guess what… Calgary is now the best place in Alberta for real estate investors.  This is good for a couple reasons:

1. The average prices and growth in the city will continue
2. This will be great for buyers in the next couple months as they are now purchasing into a potential steady market
3. Buyers over the past couple years who have seen a loss in their house may see some appreciation in their house value

What Don Campbell’s report shows is that after Calgary’s predictable correction of the last couple years we are at a point now where we have more affordable housing conditions, a stabilized economy and renewed optimism. This all bodes well for the next three plus years for Calgary to see above average growth in property values, in-migration and general happiness for Real Estate investors.

If you are in looking to make a real estate investment purchase, please let us know how we can help you out!

Email Us!

RE/MAX Housing Outlook 2010 – Calgary Alberta

While economic concerns dominated headlines through-out much of the year, Calgary’s residential real estate market quietly staged a comeback. As a result, overall housing sales are expected to top 26,000 units by year-end, an increase of 12 per cent from 2008 levels. Recovery has largely been driven by first-time buyers, many of whom had been priced out of the market in recent years. Pent-up demand, rock-bottom interest rates, greater affordability, and improved selection all served to entice purchasers early in the year who seized upon entry-level product priced under $400,000 in established communities in the southwest, northwest, south central, and north central.

The subsequent surge in activity placed upward pressure on affordable housing stock, causing values to climb eight to ten per cent from record low levels reported earlier in the year. Average price, however, remains off last year’s pace, hovering at $385,000 down five per cent from 2008.

As of October 2009, the number of homes sold in Calgary had surpassed levels reported during the same period in 2008. More balanced market conditions existed, with tight inventory levels reported in certain hot pocket areas. While some move-up activity was underway, the top-end of the market remained relatively soft—despite the sale of two $10 million properties last Summer.

Volatility in the energy market and the uncertainty south of the border served to drag down economic performance in Calgary this year. Expenditures and associated costs have been reduced, with only two projects moving forward are Kearl and the expansion of the Athabasca Oil Sands. But real GDP, forecast to slip about 2.8 per cent by year-end, should head into positive territory in 2010. A number of factors support an upswing in GDP growth next year. Calgary’s population is expected to climb by about 1.7 per cent in 2010, representing an influx of close to 18,000 people. Government stimulus in the form of infrastructure spending should also help. It’s anticipated that 2010 will be a year to re-establish economic traction, with both Calgary and the province better positioned for stronger growth in 2011.

Balanced market conditions are expected to prevail in Calgary’s residential real estate market in 2010. Prices are projected to firm up, with values edging upward for the first time in almost two years. An ample supply of homes should be listed for sale, with inventory levels limited in high demand areas. First-time buyers will lead the charge for housing, followed by move-up buyers taking advantage of favorable market conditions. Affordable alternatives such as condominiums priced under $300,000 will continue to be popular with entry-level buyers. Upscale properties, priced from $800,000, are expected to gain momentum next year, as purchasers in this segment of the market regain confidence. By year end, sales are forecast to climb eight per cent to 28,000 units, while average price is expected to record a five per cent increase at $403,000.

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