RE/MAX Housing Outlook 2010 – Calgary Alberta

While economic concerns dominated headlines through-out much of the year, Calgary’s residential real estate market quietly staged a comeback. As a result, overall housing sales are expected to top 26,000 units by year-end, an increase of 12 per cent from 2008 levels. Recovery has largely been driven by first-time buyers, many of whom had been priced out of the market in recent years. Pent-up demand, rock-bottom interest rates, greater affordability, and improved selection all served to entice purchasers early in the year who seized upon entry-level product priced under $400,000 in established communities in the southwest, northwest, south central, and north central.

The subsequent surge in activity placed upward pressure on affordable housing stock, causing values to climb eight to ten per cent from record low levels reported earlier in the year. Average price, however, remains off last year’s pace, hovering at $385,000 down five per cent from 2008.

As of October 2009, the number of homes sold in Calgary had surpassed levels reported during the same period in 2008. More balanced market conditions existed, with tight inventory levels reported in certain hot pocket areas. While some move-up activity was underway, the top-end of the market remained relatively soft—despite the sale of two $10 million properties last Summer.

Volatility in the energy market and the uncertainty south of the border served to drag down economic performance in Calgary this year. Expenditures and associated costs have been reduced, with only two projects moving forward are Kearl and the expansion of the Athabasca Oil Sands. But real GDP, forecast to slip about 2.8 per cent by year-end, should head into positive territory in 2010. A number of factors support an upswing in GDP growth next year. Calgary’s population is expected to climb by about 1.7 per cent in 2010, representing an influx of close to 18,000 people. Government stimulus in the form of infrastructure spending should also help. It’s anticipated that 2010 will be a year to re-establish economic traction, with both Calgary and the province better positioned for stronger growth in 2011.

Balanced market conditions are expected to prevail in Calgary’s residential real estate market in 2010. Prices are projected to firm up, with values edging upward for the first time in almost two years. An ample supply of homes should be listed for sale, with inventory levels limited in high demand areas. First-time buyers will lead the charge for housing, followed by move-up buyers taking advantage of favorable market conditions. Affordable alternatives such as condominiums priced under $300,000 will continue to be popular with entry-level buyers. Upscale properties, priced from $800,000, are expected to gain momentum next year, as purchasers in this segment of the market regain confidence. By year end, sales are forecast to climb eight per cent to 28,000 units, while average price is expected to record a five per cent increase at $403,000.