Recession Is Now Over… Says The Bank Of Canada
Filed Under Canadian Economy · Tagged: bank of canada, recession over
The recession is over, the Bank of Canada said in its quarterly Monetary Policy Report released Thursday.
After shrinking since the last quarter of 2008, the Canadian economy will grow by an annualized rate of 1.3 per cent in the current quarter, the bank said. “We are on track for the recovery both in Canada and globally,” Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney told reporters.
However, unemployment will continue to rise, he said.
For many Canadians, “it’s not a recovery until they start getting their jobs back. And on that score, we could still be in for a long wait,” Avery Shenfeld, CIBC economist, said in a report published Thursday.
The return to growth after three quarters of decline signals the end of the recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinkage.
Growth will accelerate through late 2009 and by the first half of 2010, the Canadian economy will be booming along with four per cent growth. But that will begin to taper off to less than three per cent by the last half of 2011, the bank said.
Carney said consumer spending and housing are pulling the growth, especially in the U.S. But there is a “speed limit” to that kind of growth, and the economy will hit it after the burst in 2010, he warned.
The bank said in its report that “stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, improved financial conditions, firmer commodity prices, and a rebound in business and consumer confidence are spurring domestic demand growth.”
“However, the higher Canadian dollar, as well as ongoing restructuring in key industrial sectors, is significantly moderating the pace of overall growth.”
The loonie was up 1.14 cents to 92.17 cents US, which may have been a reaction to the bank’s forecast.
The economic outlook is not much changed from its April report, although it says “the growth profile is slightly altered by a faster rebound in domestic demand,” the bank said.
What are your thoughts? Do you believe that the recession is over…
How did it effect you and your family or those you know?
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