Oct

3

Calmer Housing Market Brings Opportunities for First-Time Buyers

Filed Under Buying, Canadian Economy, Home Prices 

The numbers are in, and they bring good news for Canadian homebuyers. Price growth is beginning to ease up across the nation, according to Genworth Financial Canada’s Metropolitan Housing Outlook  report. For new and resale homes, price growth has quadrupled since 2001, but is expected to slow over the next five years, allowing potential homebuyers to feel a little breathing room.

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Calmer market ahead

In 2008, the rate of price growth should drop about 50% from last year for both new and resale homes across Canada. The return to historically normal levels will give consumer incomes a chance to catch up and buyers should feel less pressure and more opportunity to explore all the choices and financing options available to them.

“Now we’re seeing a calmer market,” said Peter Vukanovich, president of Genworth Financial Canada. “That translates into better opportunities for first-time homebuyers to make an informed decision.”

For homebuyers, this more stable growth is a welcome change from the increases in recent years. Both 2006 and 2007 saw an 8.7% increase in the price of new homes, and there has been a 10.2% average jump in the price of resale homes each year since 2002.

“Rapid price increases, which were virtually unsustainable in regions like Alberta, had begun to erode affordability and put a lot of pressure on first-time homebuyers in terms of their decision-making process,” said Vukanovich.

Housing market still strong

Overall, Canada’s housing market is expected to remain strong, supported by steady demand and modest price increases across the country. This year’s national average new home price is forecast at $397,789 (a 3.8% increase) with the 2008 average resale home price expected to reach $322,424 (a 5.1% increase). Regionally, the strongest housing demand can be found in B.C., Manitoba, Alberta, and Saskatchewan, as a result of the commodity-fuelled economic growth in the West.

National housing starts, however, are expected to ease to just below 215,000 units this year and 194,000 units in 2009. This represents a 15% drop, after eight years of steady increases. The drop in single-unit starts is expected to be greater than for multiples, reflecting the number of empty nesters looking to downsize and the affordability of these properties for first-time buyers.
Mortgage rates to drop

Mortgage rates will also see a drop this year as the lowered Bank of Canada interest rate flows through to the mortgage market. The average five-year conventional mortgage rate is expected to be 7.0% in 2008, dropping slightly to 6.7% in 2009.

For further report details, including regional numbers, download the full report.

More modest increases ahead

Canadians can look forward to more moderate price increases for new and existing homes across the country in the years ahead.

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